Challenges to African incumbents will grow

Significance

The continent’s trajectory is not a uniformly bleak one, however, as it also features the only two countries to move towards democracy during the COVID-19 pandemic: Malawi and Zambia. Furthermore, large majorities of people in many countries surveyed by Afrobarometer prefer democracy over other forms of government.

Impacts

• Countries that are more democratic will, on average, experience more inclusive economic recoveries.
• Economic hardships generated in part by COVID-19 will make it harder for incumbents in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe to retain power.
• Authoritarian governments will continue to see high levels of political and civic protest.
• Authoritarian countries such as Angola and Zimbabwe will resort to more state repression to maintain the status quo.