Afghan aid flows will resume, bypassing the Taliban

Significance

The Taliban government has allowed UN agencies to start paying salaries directly to teachers and healthcare workers. It initially stalled on this, but has now conceded for fear of losing legitimacy if it fails to address the looming crisis.

Impacts

• Western concerns about reprisal killings of former security service members will further complicate relations with the Taliban.
• The public-sector wage payment scheme established by UN agencies may become the norm for many years.
• Taliban restrictions on female employment will have long-term economic impacts but will fall down the list of Western priority concerns.