Turkey’s defence spend will rise despite economic woes

Significance

Official spending on defence and security for 2022 is up by about 22% year-on-year. This does not include extrabudgetary resources which are kept secret even from lawmakers. The lack of transparency and independent oversight leaves it unclear whether the government is spending wisely or efficiently.

Impacts

• The aim of 100% self-sufficiency in critical defence technologies is far-fetched given existing dependence on imports and foreign licences.
• Erdogan could drag Turkey into war on its borders to deflect attention from his economic mismanagement.
• Buying Russian S-400 missiles will cost Turkey its share of revenue from the US-led F-35 project and access to new defence technologies.
• Arms embargoes have had a positive effect in pushing Turkey to produce some banned products formerly sourced from its allies.