Prospects for Nigeria in 2022

Significance

Further deployments of security personnel to the main conflict hotspots are likely as the administration seeks to gain a symbolic advantage over major bandit groups ahead of an election year. Meanwhile, budget revenues may fall short of projections and the slow pace of structural reforms will be compounded by political manoeuvring in advance of the 2023 elections. All of this will make it difficult for the Buhari administration to cement a reform legacy in its final full year in office.