Venezuelan regional election results are uncertain

Significance

An EU election observation mission continues to deploy, despite the government’s withdrawal from Norwegian-led dialogue efforts. The opposition goes into the elections divided and in some cases reluctantly. The International Criminal Court (ICC) decision to advance an investigation into the government has re-energised voices in favour of an electoral boycott, including US Senator Marco Rubio.

Impacts

• The extradition of Venezuelan presidential adviser Alex Saab to the United States will add to the strain in bilateral relations.
• Hawkish elements in the United States and on the Venezuelan right will increase pressure on opposition groups to boycott elections.
• The International Contact Group will seek to strengthen opposition confidence in elections as a first step on a slow road back to democracy.