Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

Significance

The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity.

Impacts

• The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework.
• The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy.
• Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election.
• Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.