Africa may experience a new wave of coups

Significance

Following Zimbabwe’s 2017 ‘military assisted transition’, in the last two years governments have been removed by coups in Chad, Mali (twice), Guinea and now Sudan. Governments this year have also reported failed coup attempts or plotting in Madagascar, Niger and Guinea-Bissau.

Impacts

• The ongoing Sudan coup will be the target of much harsher international condemnation than those in Chad or Guinea.
• The Sudanese army will face substantial domestic pushback, given recent high levels of street activism.
• International sanctions often imposed after coups intensify economic challenges and can contribute to further political instability.
• Many African countries have never experienced military rule and will be comparatively insulated from a new wave of coups.