South Sudan faces a rocky road to first elections

Significance

The current government’s mandate was meant to end this year. Instead, elections prescribed for 2021 have been delayed to 2023, ostensibly to allow more time to implement the 2018 peace agreement that ended the country’s civil war. Even with such a delay, the path to elections is likely to be littered with challenges.

Impacts

• Few new opposition groups will consider forming political parties, as military strength is still viewed as the only viable route to power.
• Opposition groups may form alliances to boost their bargaining power, but talking with government is seen as more viable than toppling it.
• The post-election period will also be volatile, amid likely rejections of results or attempts to negotiate access to non-elected posts.