Most Central Asian states are comfortable with Taliban

Significance

The Taliban victory creates threats and some opportunities for Central Asian republics, three of which -- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan -- border on Afghanistan. All except Tajikistan have indicated they will work with the new Afghan authorities.

Impacts

• Russia and Central Asian states, except Tajikistan up to a point, will not back anti-Taliban resistance groups.
• Weak Afghan governance creates more scope for heroin trafficking through Central Asia.
• Although China is the more important economic player in Central Asia, it will defer to Russia on security matters.