Future integrity of the United Kingdom is at risk

Significance

The Brexit process also has coincided with the rise of national over British identities in Scotland and Wales, as well as an increase in younger generations supporting independence. In Northern Ireland, Catholics are likely to outnumber Protestants for the first time when the census is released next year.

Impacts

• The UK government’s hard-line opposition to another Scottish referendum vote could risk increasing support for independence.
• Resolving tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol will be crucial in making progress on other aspects of UK-EU relations.
• Concern over the economic impact of Brexit suggests that London will continue to take a lax approach to customs checks on EU imports.