KwaZulu-Natal instability weakens South African state

Significance

The incarceration of former President Jacob Zuma sparked looting, destruction of critical infrastructure and denial of strategic communication routes. Inter-communal confrontations in Indian areas near Durban helped to boost the provincial death toll to 251, as against 76 in the more populous Gauteng Province. KZN’s demographic, historical, economic and strategic features make its stability particularly precarious.

Impacts

• The ANC will likely lose vote share in KZN in upcoming municipal elections.
• KZN is the most likely location for any repeat of the July uprising.
• The proliferation of local militias during the July uprising will further erode state authority.