Misusing historical analogies limits US policy options

Significance

The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad.

Impacts

• The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq.
• Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish.
• Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.