Iraqi efforts to curb Iran energy dependence will fail

Significance

Failures of Iranian gas and electricity supplies have combined with attacks on pylons and a heatwave to cause severe power cuts in Iraq this summer. In the longer term, Tehran’s influence in Baghdad has also exacerbated corruption and mismanagement, hampering solutions to the electricity crisis.

Impacts

• A resolution of the US-Iran nuclear talks would likely improve the reliability of Iranian supplies to Iraq.
• Ongoing power cuts in both Iraq and Iran will exacerbate the pandemic health emergency and fuel discontent with the government.
• The current COVID-19 resurgences may further hold up new gas and electricity investment in both countries.