Rising southern conflict threatens Yemen’s future

Significance

The Hadi government and the STC have been slow to implement the November 2019 Riyadh Agreement on power-sharing in the south. Tensions have again been rising between the two sides in recent weeks, with each making contradictory appointments to official positions in Aden.

Impacts

• Emirati backing could encourage the STC to control Hadi’s government, undermining its anti-Huthi offensive in Marib.
• Saudi Arabia could further boost support for pro-Hadi forces because of UAE tensions, and strengthen them on the Marib front.
• Increased fragmentation of the political spectrum will make a long-term solution to the country’s crisis even more unlikely.
• The suffering and despair of millions of Yemenis will intensify.