The Hadi government and the STC have been slow to implement the November 2019 Riyadh Agreement on power-sharing in the south. Tensions have again been rising between the two sides in recent weeks, with each making contradictory appointments to official positions in Aden.
- Emirati backing could encourage the STC to control Hadi’s government, undermining its anti-Huthi offensive in Marib.
- Saudi Arabia could further boost support for pro-Hadi forces because of UAE tensions, and strengthen them on the Marib front.
- Increased fragmentation of the political spectrum will make a long-term solution to the country’s crisis even more unlikely.
- The suffering and despair of millions of Yemenis will intensify.