State role will entrench Syrian-Lebanese drugs trade

Significance

Key to the new pattern is the increased association of state and state-linked actors with the trade in narcotics, primarily Captagon and hashish. The new environment creates risks around larger shipments, changing drug formulas and Europe becoming a destination market.

Impacts

• Drug smuggling is likely to undercut and subvert the impact of US and EU sanctions.
• The key state-linked actors involved in drug smuggling are likely to support Iranian proxy influence in the Levant.
• The Gulf market, in particular, will see a rising health challenge from potentially dangerous Captagon substitutes.