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Nicaragua repression will worsen as elections near

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Significance

Ortega has rejected any possibility of dialogue with the opposition and avoided implementing democratising reforms. Elections scheduled for November 7 look sure to cement the government’s position, but will lack legitimacy both domestically and internationally.

Impacts

  • The government will maintain total control of the election process.
  • While it is widely assumed that Ortega will run, is it possible that his wife Vice-President Rosario Murillo will do so in his place.
  • A cybercrime law will reduce but not remove the prospect of mass protest organisation via social media.
  • Repression, combined with a slow pandemic recovery, will increase hardship for ordinary Nicaraguans, driving outward emigration.

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