Bolsonaro woes will raise election doubts in Brazil

Significance

This would require rebuilding bridges with some moderate figures, in order to gain support among the 57 million voters who rejected his party in 2018. However, it also requires a continuing deterioration in Bolsonaro’s position.

Impacts

• Lula’s candidacy is not yet confirmed but looks increasingly likely.
• The centre-right has been temporarily eclipsed, but this will change if Bolsonaro’s fortunes continue to decline.
• Bolsonaro may yet recover from his current woes if economic and health prospects improve by next year.
• Lula will draw fire for not wholeheartedly backing impeachment, given that he prefers a weakened Bolsonaro to another rival.