Ethiopia's Tigray ceasefire generates fragile hopes

Significance

Tigrayan fighters quickly took control of the regional capital, Mekelle, and other urban areas. The developments followed reports of significant battlefield gains for Tigrayan forces over the preceding days.

Impacts

• Gaps in humanitarian provision could at least temporarily worsen as federal institutions involved in aid delivery withdraw.
• Changes in authority will disrupt ongoing human rights investigations in the region, notably the joint Ethiopia-UN investigative mission.
• The ceasefire could ease Western pressure on the federal government.