Resistance to Mercosur-EU trade deal will persist

Significance

In Europe, environmentalist groups and farmers oppose the deal and have growing support among governments and in the European Parliament, in particular as a result of Brazil’s environmental policies. Argentina has adopted an increasingly protectionist stance since the return of Kirchnerism in late 2019, increasing existing rifts within Mercosur.

Impacts

• European civil society and governments will push back on the deforestation of Brazil’s Amazon rainforest under Bolsonaro.
• Green parties that are on the rise across Europe will demand the inclusion of mandatory environmental clauses before considering the deal.
• The economic impact of the pandemic could strengthen protectionist demands from European farmers and Mercosur manufacturers.