Iran-Israel confrontation path will depend on US talks

Significance

The next day, one of the largest ships in Iran’s navy, the IRIS Kharg, caught fire and sank, and several storage tanks blazed for hours at a state-owned oil refinery in Tehran. Although both could easily have been accidents, multiple claims to the contrary on social media reflect the ongoing Iranian-Israeli covert war.

Impacts

• Whatever the nuclear deal outcome, Tehran will maintain efforts to force Washington out of the Middle East, especially in Iraq.
• Iran will venture further into the Arabian Sea and Red Sea with its newly operational advanced sea bases, Makran and Shahid Roudaki.
• Iran will pursue its goal of deploying a mobile air defence system in Syria with the potential prize of downing an Israeli combat aircraft.