Stalemate may persist despite Nigerian jihadist unrest

Significance

ISWAP appears intent upon asserting its dominance among Nigeria’s jihadists, but Shekau has survived reports of his death before, and ISWAP still faces challenges in resolving its own internal feuds, let alone appropriating Shekau’s organisation.

Impacts

• Tensions will rise in Maiduguri as residents and authorities await ISWAP’s next move.
• Jihadist influence outside the north-east is difficult to assess, but Shekau’s death could help ISWAP win allies in the north-west.
• That it is ISWAP and not the Nigerian military that appears to have killed Shekau may damage frontline soldiers’ already low morale.