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Israeli-US leader ties will be functional but fraught

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Significance

This also comes as indirect US nuclear talks with Iran resume in Vienna, despite concerted Israeli opposition. US President Joe Biden is in effect withdrawing the unconditional backing his predecessor Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Impacts

  • The Gaza ceasefire will be fragile, with a significant chance of renewed hostilities in the short-to-medium term.
  • The appointment of a new Mossad chief, David Barnea, may lower the profile of but will not materially change Israeli-US intelligence ties.
  • The United States will further increase financial support to both Gaza and the West Bank.
  • In a more serious possible future war against Hezbollah, Washington might not back a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.

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