EU neighbours’ policy towards Belarus will not soften

Significance

Poland and the Baltic states have strongly condemned the repression of protests following the 2020 elections in Belarus, supporting the opposition and engaging the international community against Alexander Lukashenka's government. Their policies towards Belarus previously encouraged economic and political cooperation, trade and independence from Russia. Now democratic values are being prioritised over economic concerns.

Impacts

• Belarus will pursue a foreign policy more closely oriented to Russia, having lost the support of its closest EU allies.
• Lukashenka will find it harder to resist pressure to increase Russia's military presence in Belarus.
• The Baltic states will explore alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on Belarus.