Mexico’s Morena poised for significant gains in June

Significance

Polling gives the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) a strong lead in voting intentions for the Chamber of Deputies, and in most of the 15 gubernatorial races scheduled. Polling on mayorships and other municipal positions is lacking but Morena is also expected to perform well there.

Impacts

• The government’s poor record on security and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic looks unlikely to undermine Morena support.
• Political fallout from the recent metro disaster in Mexico City could damage Morena in the capital.
• As long as the main opposition parties fail to redefine themselves as distinct but appealing alternatives to Morena, they will struggle.