Mozambique's FRELIMO faces military intervention push

Significance

Oil and gas major Total has suspended work on its nearby liquefied natural gas (LNG) site, while a humanitarian crisis has worsened. Pressure for an external military intervention has increased dramatically, notably from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), but Mozambique’s ruling FRELIMO remains reluctant.

Impacts

• A delay to planned LNG projects, coupled with ongoing insecurity, mean economic growth will remain subdued through the medium term.
• Delays to FRELIMO’s succession process to replace President Filipe Nyusi will become an increasingly explosive political issue.
• An outside military intervention would force FRELIMO to re-align its regional and international strategic alliances in the short term.