Nigeria’s ruling APC faces fierce succession battle

Significance

This has intensified political wrangling among potential aspirants in the south-west, the southern geopolitical zone with the largest voting bloc. The former Lagos State governor and APC national leader, Bola Tinubu, is frontrunner, but Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi, chairman of the influential Nigeria Governors' Forum, reportedly harbours presidential ambitions.

Impacts

• The APC is likely to weather recent party turmoil in Ekiti but attempts to sideline Tinubu will probably intensify as primaries approach.
• Competition for control of state APC structures will intensify; legal and extra-legal skirmishes are likely in APC battleground states.
• Buhari is unlikely to anoint a successor, given his largely hands-off approach, spurring further wrangling before the APC’s 2022 primaries.
• Fayemi's popularity among some APC governors and his politically more favourable religious affiliation may give him an edge over Tinubu.