Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

Significance

Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity.

Impacts

• Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq.
• Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO.
• The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.