Foreign policy successes will bolster Iraq’s Kadhimi

Significance

A succession of modest but diverse foreign policy successes is gradually strengthening Kadhimi’s domestic position. He is receiving strong backing from the United States, the Arab world and international organisations. Serious security breaches have become fewer and less consequential, as the premier has made tentative advances against the dominance of Iran-backed militias in the country.

Impacts

• Iran-linked forces may seek to scupper Gulf investment deals, but they will likely survive if they attract Sadrist support.
• Jordan could export electricity to Iraq from 2022; plans for gas and oil pipelines in the opposite direction are progressing slowly.
• Adequate winter rainfall upstream could boost summer water availability, helping Kadhimi manage unrest.