Russian spy agency has impunity for foreign mishaps

Significance

Prague recently blamed Russia's GRU military intelligence agency for two explosions at a Czech arms dump in 2014. The ensuing dispute has included reciprocal expulsions of embassy staff. The case has focused attention on the GRU's Unit 29155, blamed for this and other incidents including the 2018 Salisbury poison attacks.

Impacts

• Western counter-intelligence agencies will comb past records for evidence of hitherto unsuspected GRU activities over recent years.
• The GRU's rival agencies in Moscow may decide to find an entry point to the Czech-Russian crisis, to win Kremlin approbation.
• Evidence of weak checks in issuing Schengen visas, which allowed Unit 29155 to travel freely in Europe, may lead to a tightening of rules.