Somali president’s term extension risks instability

Significance

The move has provoked strong criticism from opposition groups, civil society organisations and foreign donors, as elections are already long overdue.

Impacts

• Farmajo may try to counterbalance criticisms from Western nations by seeking support from other allies, such as Russia or Qatar.
• The decision of powerful Hawiye clan delegates to reject the term extension will add to the pressure on Farmajo, especially in Mogadishu.
• Al-Shabaab may expand its control over rural areas as federal troops retreat or are redeployed.