Progress on transatlantic trade relations will be slow

Significance

It represents a strong message to Europeans that a return to transatlantic trade pre-2016 is not on the horizon, and instead US trade policy will be driven by the need to protect domestic manufacturers and workers from the negative impacts of globalization and address China-related concerns.

Impacts

• A solution to the Airbus-Boeing state subsidy dispute is likely before the end of the year.
• The doubling to 50% of EU retaliatory tariffs on US imports, scheduled for June 1, is unlikely to shift Biden’s policy on protectionism.
• European cooperation with Washington on China may strengthen European leverage in other areas of the transatlantic relationship.