Brexit’s long-term impact on Ireland will be modest

Significance

The agri-food industry will be particularly hurt by new customs and regulatory checks, as will pharmaceuticals and chemicals, electric and electronic machinery, and wholesale and retail. Ireland’s trade with the EU will also be disrupted because of Ireland’s extensive use of the UK land-bridge for international trade.

Impacts

• Brexit will worsen regional inequality in Ireland, as most of the worst-affected industries are located outside the Dublin area.
• Irish consumers and UK exporters stand to lose, as the United Kingdom ran a large trade surplus with Ireland before Brexit.
• A main threat to Irish economic growth would be if large multinational companies decided to leave Ireland.
• Ireland could experience an influx of low-skilled EU labour migrants following UK plans to make this kind of immigration more difficult.