Mali will struggle to bring Kidal under control

Significance

Symbolic moves in Kidal city recently, such as the display of the Malian national flag and a meeting held by a committee for monitoring the implementation of a 2015 peace accord, indicate a degree of political opening for the transitional authorities. Kidal is a vital node of the Sahelian conflict, even though violence has declined there relative to central Mali and other conflict theatres.

Impacts

• Progress in Kidal will earn Bamako goodwill from Paris, which sees the Algiers Accord as an essential component of stability in the Sahel.
• Positive relations between Bamako and the CMA could boost the chances of fruitful dialogue with jihadists, who have ties to the CMA.
• A working relationship with the CMA could be essential to organising successful national elections in early 2022.