Deby’s control of Chad looks unlikely to be shaken

Significance

The presidential election will take place on April 11 and parliamentary elections are scheduled for October. As the country prepares for the polls, security challenges and humanitarian emergencies are unfolding in various parts of the country, especially in remote and border regions.

Impacts

• The designation of a vice-president could shift balances of power within the family network that dominates top political and military posts.
• Western powers and other African states are likely to accept even a highly flawed election, as they have in the past.
• Further protests may occur, but Deby appears less vulnerable in the short-term than Malian President Ibrahim Keita proved in 2020.