Mali transition may entrench military in power

Significance

Arrests of major politicians and media personalities, protests against the French military presence in Mali and frequent public criticisms of the transition itself all point to a rocky short-term future for the transition.

Impacts

• The transitional government could advance administrative reorganisations that have long been more notional than real.
• Regional attention will remain focused on Mali, given relative political stability (and despite insecurity) in Burkina Faso and Niger.
• Political parties and civil society (many of which are fairly weak) will struggle to oppose the transitional government.