Guinea-Bissau’s Embalo will seek to centralise power

Significance

The end to the UN peace operation came almost three months after the departure of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Mission in Guinea Bissau (ECOMIB). The completion of both missions comes amid a tense political standoff between President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and the former ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

Impacts

• Embalo’s heavy-handed approach could bring short-term stability but poses a long-term threat to a fragile political and security situation.
• Drug trafficking will remain a major challenge for the new administration, despite hard-line government commitments.
• Embalo is looking to regional allies to attract much-needed funds for his administration and provide technical and financial assistance.