Australia’s coal sector will suffer in the long term

Significance

Australia is a major exporter of coal, but revenues from sales abroad are expected to fall by 32% in the 2020-21 financial year due to lower volumes and weaker prices, with only a partial recovery in 2021-22.

Impacts

• Coal exploration and extraction have probably peaked, with most large producers likely to exit the industry.
• Global demand will decline given carbon-neutral policies and a localisation shift by some countries.
• A swing towards moderates in the governing coalition’s climate change debate could bring policies less favourable to fossil fuel.