Bosnia’s local election results could be destabilising

Significance

Low turnouts in elections in mid-November and ruling party setbacks suggest popular frustration. A quarter-century after the war, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) is marked by division and dysfunction. Unless a way is found locally or abroad to fix its problems -- and soon -- BiH will slide towards disintegration or even new conflict.

Impacts

• Ruling Bosniak and Bosnian Serb party defeats in Sarajevo and Banja Luka could indicate a shift ahead of 2022 general elections.
• Change in the White House is expected to bring stronger US involvement in BiH, providing either opportunity or risk.
• Close EU-US cooperation in the Balkans is a key condition but no guarantee for stabilising BiH and the whole region.