South Africa's Magashule will test Ramaphosa's power

Significance

Despite his arrest, Magashule has flouted a ruling that party officials charged with criminal offences must stand down. A key ally of former President Jacob Zuma (2009-18), the populist Magashule has regularly sidetracked incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform efforts.

Impacts

• Magashule does not have widespread public support or backing from ANC structures as an alternative leader to Ramaphosa.
• Magashule’s defenders will blame ‘white monopoly capital’ interests and intensify attacks on anti-graft bodies, the judiciary and the media.
• Zuma's recent efforts to undermine the Zondo Commission examining 'state capture' may delay but not derail his potential future prosecution.