China and Russia tactics will undercut their vaccines

Significance

For Russia, it would be a chance for international acclaim and to stoke national pride. For China, success would offset its shortcomings in responding to the emergence of COVID-19 and would demonstrate superior biomedical technology to the world and its own citizens. These two governments' efforts can influence the speed at which the pandemic is brought under control.

Impacts

• Multiple successful vaccines would help overcome production and logistical challenges to meet global demand.
• The value of vaccine development companies is likely to be volatile, as phase III trials and results are reported over the next few months.
• Western states will be reluctant to take Chinese or Russian vaccines.
• Some regional vaccine blocs, mirroring global powers' spheres of influence, could emerge.
• Moscow may use disinformation to sow distrust of vaccines in Western countries, slowing innoculations and eroding trust in government.