Mali military influence will grow in the medium term

Significance

CNSP leader Colonel Assimi Goïta was named vice president.

Impacts

• The transitional government will have to organise and supervise elections, probably some time in late 2021 or early 2022.
• ECOWAS is likely to lift the economic restrictions on Mali now.
• The dual blow to the economy from COVID-19 and the post-coup sanctions will push people below the poverty line.
• Without improvements in governance, Mali could become stuck in a cycle of embattled civilian presidents and periodic 'corrective' coups.