Expansion of Mexico’s CJNG poses regional risks

Significance

Police believe the cargo, worth some USD18.6mn, belonged to Mexico’s New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), a group that has expanded rapidly in the last decade to become one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisations.

Impacts

• AMLO remains popular but increasing violence and perceptions of impunity will weigh on his approval ratings.
• Any increased use of the military would undermine AMLO’s image as a human rights defender and could raise government-military tensions.
• CJNG expansion will reach a limit, hastened by arrests, killings and asset confiscation, but for now it benefits from rivals’ weaknesses.