Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

Significance

He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades.

Impacts

• New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election.
• Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities.
• No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least.
• Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular.
• Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.