The threat of African military coups may rise

Significance

International agreement that all unconstitutional transfers should be condemned and punished is being tested by carefully designed takeovers that appear to adhere to democratic principles and enjoy popular support. In Mali, as in Zimbabwe, the coup plotters sought to escape international sanction by forcing the president to resign rather than more traditional strategies of execution, imprisonment or exile.

Impacts

• The international community will find it harder to reach consensus on coups as they become increasingly disguised as popular transitions.
• On average, military regimes achieve lower levels of economic growth and commit worse human rights violations than democratic states.
• Coups weaken democratic institutions and norms while politicising the military, making further coups likely.