Factors encouraging Lithuanians to emigrate will fall

Significance

Before COVID-19 intervened, economic growth, rising wages, the development of high-tech sectors and Brexit were encouraging immigration. In 2019, 51% of immigrants were Lithuanians returning from abroad; the rest were foreigners, mostly from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, thanks to the poor political and business environment in those countries, cultural similarities and job opportunities in the shadow economy.

Impacts

• Whatever the outcome of the current unrest, Belarusians will continue leaving for Lithuania.
• In October’s elections, more emigrants will vote and in a new single constituency support Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius.
• The economy may defy expectations, having contracted by just 3.8% year-on-year in April-June.