Tanzania’s elections offer little prospect of change

Significance

Although this appears all but guaranteed, internal jostling within the party, opposition politicking and allegations of undemocratic practices may make for an eventful and turbulent election period.

Impacts

• Rumours Magufuli may seek a third term will persist, even if recent comments urging him to do so are likely just testing the waters.
• Regional relations may suffer further, as tempers flare over neighbouring countries’ criticism of Tanzania’s COVID-19 policies.
• Any international criticism of the electoral process is likely to be dismissed as ill-informed or malicious foreign interference.