'Mercenary' arrests derail Belarus-Russia ties again

Significance

In recent months, Lukashenka has repeatedly argued that Moscow is working to unseat him at the August 9 polls. A trade and debt deal last month made progress on important energy issues, and with that progress appeared to ease bilateral tensions: political and economic relations are intertwined. Now the mistrust is back: as Lukashenka denounces "liars", Moscow is angrily denying the suggestion it would destabilise a neighbour.

Impacts

• Ukraine will seek the extradition of some of the 33 arrested Russians, putting Minsk in an awkward position.
• Lukashenka is proposing a post-election referendum on the constitution, presumably to strengthen his position.
• Belarus will keep asking Russia to cut the cost of natural gas as well as oil.