Mozambican government will maintain bunker mentality

Significance

While the Mozambican authorities, bolstered by a South African-based private military company (PMC), appear to have lessened the scale of insurgent attacks in recent months, insecurity remains rife. Meanwhile, civilian authority is increasingly brittle as locals flee various districts fearing renewed insurgent attacks.

Impacts

• International concern will grow over the reported intersection between the insurgency and criminal trafficking networks.
• The worsening COVID-19 crisis, including related job losses, will aggravate the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado.
• Ongoing insecurity from attacks in central provinces by the splinter ‘RENAMO Military Junta’ will stretch the security forces’ resources.