Tuesday, July 21, 2020
France has supported eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar while Italy backs the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Germany has been enlisted by the UN to resolve their differences. Yet the dominant players in Libya are Turkey, Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
- Confrontation between GNA and pro-Haftar forces around Sirte and Jufra could escalate into a proxy war between Turkey and Egypt and the UAE.
- Paris will lead European opposition to Turkey's role in Libya, with Greece and Cyprus in tow.
- Turkey will influence the GNA's stance in any future negotiations.