Iraqi premier and militias in slow-burn confrontation

Significance

He has moved to roll back some of their penetration of state structures and revenue streams. However, they are striking back, with ongoing rocket attacks targeting US interests and probable responsibility for the assassination of a prominent security analyst.

Impacts

• As cyber and covert tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, Tehran could use Iraqi militias as a tool to strike back.
• If US-led coalition troops were to withdraw under pressure, that would in turn undermine the residual US military presence in Syria.
• Austerity measures and power cuts could bring renewed mass protests, again shifting political incentives.
• An early election scenario would intensify political focus on flaws in the new electoral law.